Although the Qatar blockade is now in its fourth week, and showing no signs of coming to an end, a conclusion to this diplomatic crisis must inevitably emerge.
On 23 June the aggressors started the timer, with their 13 point ultimatum deadline set for 3 July. Now is a good moment to assess whether that timer is most likely attached to a reconciliatory injection, or a bomb destined to shatter Gulf relations.
On 23 June the aggressors started the timer, with their 13 point ultimatum deadline set for 3 July. Now is a good moment to assess whether that timer is most likely attached to a reconciliatory injection, or a bomb destined to shatter Gulf relations.
Currently, the Saudi faction's combination of startlingly severe demands and headstrong intransigence towards compromise has rendered reconciliation an unlikely prospect.
The impasse is then compounded by the willingness of some - particularly Iran and Turkey - to support Qatar in the emirate's moment of need. This clash makes a settlement significantly difficult to envisage, although all-out war still thankfully remains a remote possibility.
Beginning, then, with the potential for rapprochement and a cessation of the blockade. When Saudi Arabia and its allies imposed a similar set of demands on Qatar in 2014, a deal was reached when Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani flew to Riyadh personally to agree and sign the Riyadh Agreement.
On this occasion, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain's decision to cut all diplomatic ties was reversed, presumably by Qatari concessions (the full document was never released).
On this occasion, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain's decision to cut all diplomatic ties was reversed, presumably by Qatari concessions (the full document was never released).
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